March 13, 2023
A very abbreviated report this week as we were all traveling to the National Coffee Association convention in Florida and writing this on my phone at the airport. The first in-person get together since covid hit. A lot of great conversations and catching up with old friends.
Most discussions had a similar tone. Overall supply/demand balance moving to a small surplus toward the end of this year after back-to-back deficits. No revelations around individual crop expectations. Much of the debate, confusion and frustration was focused on consumption and the difficulty in quantifying it. Almost all agreed it was down or flat at best. Is it a new dynamic? Pipeline burn off after covid and the shipping crisis? Different channels holding inventory due to market inversion? No firm answers but there is a lot of work being done to try and quantify things.
In any case the market is still not projected to be over supplied in a big way over the next year. Little change for the C Market on the week. Continue to expect a rough range of 160 to 190 with potential surprises toward 210/220 possible. Friday’s outside day higher on the chart suggests the recent decline is running out of steam.
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